AS Monaco v Leverkusen – UEL Betting Preview


Monaco Preview

Monaco are full of confidence domestically and in this competition, where they strongly fancy themselves to not only progress, but win at home and move on to the next stage.

Monaco have won their last four league games and sit in third place in Ligue 1. In this run of four consecutive wins, they despatched PSG 3-1, a result which sent a shock wave around Europe and not just France.

Monaco come into the game seeking to protect a 3-2 lead earned in one of the best matches in the UEL round from the first leg in Germany. Of all the reasonably entertaining UEFA Europa League knockout round play-offs, their victory was the highest scoring affair of them all. It sets them up with pressure however to progress now back at the Stade Louis II.

Manager Philippe Clement is missing Aguilar, Maripan, Martins, Vanderson, and Volland due to injuries. He know simply avoiding defeat will get the job done, but no extra defensive formations or changes are expected.

Monaco is confident in achieving at least a draw as they are currently riding an eight-game unbeaten streak, all competitions.


Leverkusen Summary

It has been a largely disappointing season for Bayer Leverkusen to date, and only a positive run in the UEFA Europa League could add some spice to their season.

Having lost the first leg 3-2 at home, they travel to Monaco knowing that only a win will send them into the next round and keep the European dream alive.

Domestically they have won two from their last five games and are sitting midtable in the Bundesliga.

They are slightly closer to being dragged into the relegation zone than they are away from getting into the European berth, looking at a large 11 point gap between them and 6th placed Frankfurt.

Leverkusen saw their confidence drop further from the first-leg loss, when things worsened in the weekend’s Bundesliga action, dropping to the same result, this time a 3-2 defeat to Mainz.

Manager Xabi Alonso’s men will most certainly not give up even though odds are stacked against them.

On a positive and optimistic note, three of their last four away matches on the road ended in a victory. They lost the other but in general, not being able to keep clean sheets home or away has been a let-down.

The Germans travel to France without Aranguiz, Diaby and Lunev who are recovering from injuries and thereafter not available.


Betting Analysis

Looking at the 1×2 market first. Monaco is the favorites to win but the concern for backing them to get the victory is that they do not even need to one in order to qualify. A draw will be a good result for them and one they would settle for. Monaco is @ 2.25 to win. The visitor Leverkusen must win, and they are @ 3.05. The draw is @ 3.75.

Moving onto the Asian handicap betting for this contest. Monaco -0.25 is @ 1.93 while Leverkusen is @ 1.92. As above market, the home side don’t need to win, and it is never ideal betting on a team which does not need to win if you want 100% profit from the stake. That said, it could suit Monaco on break aways as Leverkusen will take risks to score goals when chasing the tie.

Looking at The Under/Over betting finally, where I am drawn to the Over 2.75 @ 1.92. The first leg was a real cracker of a contest and the Germans, who score and concede for fun, must play on the front foot. At the same time, Monaco will not play for a 0-0 and so it should be another open match. The Under is @ 1.90. Possibly an idea here is to wait ten minutes and get a better price on overs, or see the line drop to 2.25/2.5 and then hit the bet.