Kingsley Coman‘s solitary goal in the first leg in Paris handed Bayern Munich an advantage coming into this one. Despite suffering a loss to Borussia Mönchengladbach in their next game, Bayern have kept their lead in the Bundesliga thanks to wins against Union Berlin and VfB Stuttgart. Ex–Paris Saint–Germain player Choupo–Moting celebrated with a goal in the last game and is expected to remain in the team.
Meanwhile, PSG earned their third consecutive win at the weekend, beating Nantes 4–2 to remain at the top of Ligue 1. Both Mbappe and Messi scored and will likely be in the starting lineup for the Bayern match. PSG are also in fine form and are looking to win their first–ever Champions League title.
Below, we look at the stats of both teams from their first-leg tie and their current European campaign to comprehend how this matchup could play out.
Overall head-to-head comparison
The viz above shows the percentile rank of both teams’ stats compared to each other as well as to other teams in the UEFA Champions League in 2022–23. It can be seen that Bayern has better overall stats than PSG in most departments. Notably, the German giants have better stats in terms of xG, key passes, shots, and goals per 90. Alternatively, PSG are only slightly better in terms of making accurate passes and passes per 90. Both teams are at par in making entries into the penalty area, and Bayern are ahead in terms of keeping the ball.
Both teams in attack
The two visuals above show the shot maps of both teams from the first leg of the UEFA Champions League contest. Bayern scored from inside the box and took seven shots from distance. In comparison, PSG only managed to take two shots from outside the penalty box despite playing at home and having plenty of firepower. PSG took nine shots in total and ended the match with 0.96 xG compared to the 0.1.51 xG accumulated by the Bavarians from 14 shots.
Overall, PSG have averaged 10.33 shots per match with 41.9% accuracy in the away matches of this season’s European competitions. Meanwhile, Bayern currently attempts 17 shots per match with 49% accuracy when playing at home in Europe.
Progressive gameplay in the first leg
Bayern Munich enjoyed 56.58% possession and made 587 passes (89.61% accuracy). They utilised the flanks and central regions more frequently to advance forward and made 76 progressive passes. Bayern generates 39 positional attacks per match, with 25.6% leading to shots, and makes 63.33 passes to the final third while playing at the Allianz Arena in the Champions League.
Bayern made a total of 31 penetrating carries into PSG’s box in the first leg at the Parc des Princes. This was a major blow to Galtier’s men, as the Germans managed to ease past the Parisian midfield and test Donnaruma on a number of occasions.
PSG maintained 43.42% possession and 491 passes (86.76% accuracy). Away from home in Europe, the Parisians generate 23.33 positional attacks per match, with 24.3% leading to shots, and make 58.67 passes to the final third.
PSG managed only 11 penetrating carries in the first leg and were stopped in their tracks by the Germans. They were not at all impressive in terms of building the play and moving the ball into dangerous areas.
Recoveries in the opponent’s half
The two visuals above compare both teams based on the number of times they regained possession in the final third. Bayern holds the advantage in this area. They have made 13 high regains, including six that led to shots, compared to the three made by PSG. The Bavarians ceased possession more frequently, as evidenced by the six more counter-pressing recoveries they made than the French. Overall, the French team averages 71.33 recoveries when playing away from home, compared to the 84 recoveries made by Bayern at their fortress.
Choupo-Moting is a lethal striker and provides quality in the final third. He has scored three goals in five matches for the Bavarians. He has taken eight shots, of which five have been on target, and one of them has been a goal from outside the box. Overall, the player has 1.37 xG and 0.17 xG per shot. PSG must be aware of the dangers of the Cameroon International, as he has great technical ability and awareness.
Mbappe is without a doubt the key player for PSG in the match. This time around, he has shone for his country in the World Cup and has been kept in PSG ownership’s squad primarily for the purpose of winning the ultimate prize. Kylian Mbappe has scored seven goals in the 2022/23 UEFA Champions League and has an overall xG of 2.13. He has taken 21 shots, with 13 on target. He has scored most of his goals from inside the box, along with one strike from long-range as well. He is a major threat down the left flank and the German full-backs will have to be on their toes.
The Bavarians will play without Hernandez and Neuer due to injuries, whereas Pavard is out due to suspension. The Parisians have been dealt a huge blow with the confirmation of Neymar being out for the remainder of the season. Kimpembe and Sanches will also miss out due to injuries.
Overall, both teams have some of the best players in the world and will be looking to put on a show for the fans. They have strong defensive units, and both have lethal attacking units. This should be an entertaining match between two of the best teams in Europe. The winner of this match will become a favourite to be crowned the Champions of Europe.
Visuals via TFA data viz engine